Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists laid out a framework for evaluating private equity investments. While fund vehicles often last more than ten years, the assets they contain are held ...

Chinese inflation surprised to the upside, but the rise reflects higher energy prices rather than stronger demand. CPI rose 1.2% y/y versus 0.9% expected, while PPI was the bigger surprise at 2.8% y/y ...

Our Counterpoint strategists argue that AI is unlikely to deliver the productivity acceleration that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is betting on. If that bet fails, our colleagues would expect the US ...

Canada’s growth outlook is deteriorating, with labor-market slack rising and economic surprises turning lower. Canadian economic surprises have turned negative and continue to fall. The April jobs ...

The investment cycle remains firmly intact, driving equity prices and fundamentals, as confirmed by both Q1 data and corporate commentary. Upside surprises, expanding margins, and rising capex ...

The global economy has weathered the oil shock reasonably well so far. However, the risk of a recession will increase meaningfully if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June.

The Bank of England’s latest Monetary Policy Report offers a clean framework for thinking through an oil shock and the appropriate policy response. The first channel is the direct effect of higher ...

Early indicators suggest the labor market has stabilized and may be starting to reaccelerate. Given structural changes such as immigration and demographics, the labor market should be assessed through ...

Our Global Investment strategists are neutral on global equities, with a more constructive tilt contingent on the oil shock abating. The global economy has so far held up reasonably well, supported by ...

The March JOLTS report reinforces the view that the labor market has stabilized after weakening through 2025. Job openings beat estimates at 6.86m, and the February data were revised upward. Quits ...

Our Global Asset Allocation strategists upgrade equities to overweight at the expense of cash, moving EU equities from overweight to underweight while upgrading the US to neutral. Our colleagues argue ...

Helium is a more serious bottleneck than neon was after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, fears of a global neon shortage were mostly unfounded. Ukrainian steel mills ...