In normal times, the baseline probability of a recession in any given 12-month window is around 20%. Every major forecaster ...

The economy is sending investors mixed signals again. The stock market continues climbing to fresh highs, corporate profits ...

Goldman sees encouraging signs in the latest jobs report, and predicts oil prices will stabilize around $90 by year-end.

Recessions are not predictable with precision. But they are priceable, and at 40% to 50% probability, the risk deserves portfolio-level attention. The investors best positioned for whatever happens ...

Moody's recession model is flashing a warning signal that a recession could be around the corner -- and that was before oil prices spiked to $120 a barrel.

Sharp drop in 2026 risk: Recession probability for 2026 fell to 17.5% amid easing oil prices and record S&P 500 highs. Why 2027 looks tougher: Rising debt servicing costs, persistent inflation, and ...

"In a recession, investors usually look for stability, liquidity and a reasonable return while they wait out uncertainty.

The stock market has been on a wild ride over the past several weeks. After plunging by nearly 20% between February and April, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has rallied by more than 13% in the past ...

Renowned independent investment strategist Ed Yardeni, the President of Yardeni Research, has lowered his U.S. recession probability while raising his S&P 500 target following the trade deal with ...

Sharp sentiment shift: Recession risk for 2026 fell from 36.9% to 17.5% in a month, driven by easing oil concerns and strong ...

When President Donald Trump announced his sweeping tariff plans a couple of months ago, economists at J.P. Morgan put the probability of a U.S. recession at 60% because of the prospect of a global ...

NEW YORK - JUNE 10: People wait in line to enter the Diversity Job Fair at the Affinia Hotel June 10, 2008 in New York City. "The disconnect is not complacency about energy prices," macro analyst ...